I've written a blog for Huffington Post on global warming. When I last wrote about on the matter on this blog, I got some push back on the Quodlibeta forum.
I'm afraid I haven't really changed my mind...
Discuss this post at the Quodlibeta Forum
James,
ReplyDeleteThanks for beating this drum, somebody has to. CO2 causes warming, that is clear, but there's way too much bad science and alarmism from both sides.
I think a great view of your mental model can be found here:
http://swingrightrudie.blogspot.com/2010/05/simple-model-by-dr-orssengo-for-global.html
I've always phrased it slightly differently than you though. Even if you believe some of the most radical models, the extreme ends of warming (5+ C) are very unlikely. Furthermore, if we project even the most optimistic policies (a universal Kyoto, or an unrealistically effective global carbon tax) will only delay the warming by a decade or two.
Hence, I like to say that warming will either be negligible or inevitable.
Either way, the best thing we can do is to adapt, and to push economic development that lifts people out of poverty.